Covid-19 … continued

First – let me be clear: I’m no expert.

But simple logic suggests that the current government’s idea of engendering herd immunity is both logical and cruel – people will die now, who might otherwise die later – even much, much later.

But if we keep well apart until further notice which is broadly the French suggestion, then we will all be fine – until we get back together again….

It is an extremely difficult conundrum and I’m not criticising either decision – but what I think I must criticise is the lack of UK government support for self isolating – that is absolutely essential in order to gain healthcare time. So why on earth is there no carte blanche, regardless of individual circumstances, to reimburse any and all income lost?

Yes, it may be abused, but when we know that the government creates money out of thin air and owns a bank, why exactly, when we are facing up to a world pandemic, does that have any importance at all?

Society needs it. Full stop.

I really would support – even this government – if it did that.

Comments

  1. Sean Danaher -

    The science is still evolving. With Climate Change, for example, my thinking went from the “precautionary principle”, to “on the balance of probabilities”, to “beyond reasonable doubt” to “virtual certainty.”

    The evidence for social distancing seems to be rapidly moving along the same lines but over a period of weeks rather than decades.

    One of the best documents is this from the ECDC (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control) https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/social-distancing-measures-in-response-to-the-COVID-19-epidemic.pdf :

    Observational and modelling evidence from past pandemics (e.g. influenza pandemics) and from the experiences with COVID-19 in China indicates that the early, decisive, rapid, coordinated and comprehensive implementation of social distancing measures are likely to be more effective in slowing the spread of the virus than delayed actions[6-8]: it is estimated that if a range of non-pharmaceutical interventions, including social distancing, had been conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier in China, the number of cases could have been reduced by 66%, 86%, and 95%, respectively, together with significantly reducing the number of affected areas [9].

    9. Lai S, Ruktanonchai N, Zhou L, Prosper O, Luo W, Floyd J. Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions for containing the COVID-19 outbreak: an observational and modelling study. medRxiv. 2020

    1. Peter May -

      I agree we should be encouraging more social distancing – indeed probably mandating it – although the buses and trains would probably have to shut down. What I find difficult is that if you shut down for a month and have no cases surely when things start up again so the virus will spread again. All you have achieved – though that is no small thing with a 10 year defunded NHS is flattened a healthcare peak till the next one arrives?
      Johnson wants, like Brexit, to get Coronavirus done..

  2. Bill Hughes -

    Yes it is very obvious that we have reached beyond the washing of hands stage (though need to keep doing this) and to adopt Italian or Wuhan models of prevention as soon as possible.

  3. Graham -

    The “let’s delay until the NHS is better able to cope in the summer” is disingenuous if not downright deceitful. It seems to me Johnson is quite willing to sacrifice “loved ones” just so business can keep making money.

  4. Charles Adams -

    Herd immunity is not logical! Saving lives is logical.

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