Will NI see its 100th Birthday in 2022?

 

The dust is settling slightly over the weekend, the relief on Friday sadly is once again turning into low level dread. The constructive ambiguity in the UK/EU agreement is wide open to interpretation. Some discussion of this is here on Richard Murphy’s TRUK blog. I’m not sure we are that much further forward but it seems that we can move on to look at the shape of future trade options which will probably a choice between a Norway deal (close alignment with the EU) and a Canada deal. Barnier thinks that the Canada deal is the only one that is possible.

There are assurances regarding Northern Ireland but are these simply weasel words on the UK’s part?

One option for Northern Ireland, which removes  the border problem, is Unification. Certainly on the ground in Belfast in a fine article in Slugger O’Toole  by Brendan Heading, How brexit is destroying NI’s centre ground – and could take the Union with it, things seem to be changing:

But the tenor of the present-day debate in general has led me, and I believe many people in the centre ground, to reach the point where we are struggling to find reasons to support maintaining the Union between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. Anecdotally, I’ve found many of my friends feel the same way. I can’t say how many of us there are, and I can’t claim to be representative. What I do know is that in my wider social circle people who would never have even considered discussing reunification are now giving serious thought to how it could be satisfactorily accomplished.

I believe, without some sort of reversal, and without some sort of change in attitude within the ranks of the DUP, that this Brexit process is going to create a new legion of non-nationalist supporters of Irish reunification who, within our lifetimes, will vote Northern Ireland out of the United Kingdom.

Recent polls have shown a growing trend towards a UI majority and in a worst case scenario of a “Hard Brexit” the majority of NI people might vote for a United Ireland.

Fig. 1 NI border poll in a hard Brexit scenario.

 

How have we gotten to this position?

1) Brexit, was the definite catalyst and the people of NI voted to stay in the EU most strongly around the border areas.

2) Changing demographics.  There is a Catholic majority in all age groups under 46 and politically the Nationalists and Unionists are neck an neck. In the last assembly election Nationalists outnumbered Unionists (just) for the first time ever.

Fig. 2 Voting intentions December 2017

 

 

3) Northern Ireland is not doing well. At the time of independence in 1922 80% of all the industrial output in Ireland was in the three counties surrounding Belfast. Currently only around 10% of industrial output is in NI and that seems likely to decline further. The province is kept afloat by large injections of cash from the UK government of around 25% of its GDP and even then it is one of the poorest regions in the UK.

4) Economic changes in Ireland.  The South has being doing very well and is now considerably richer than the North. The education system is better than the UK and the health system is improving, so much so that a recent study in the  Lancet placed Ireland well above the UK in global rankings (IRL 13th and UK 30th in world rankings). Ireland is moving towards a NHS style system SlainteCare but with integrated Health and Social Services. The NHS sadly is chronically underfunded and seems to be in real difficulty.

5) Cultural changes in Ireland. The Taoiseach, gay, half Indian, running a country that became the first one to legalize gay marriage in a referendum. I can’t help thinking that to a small u (someone who is Unionist more out of habit than conviction) , gay or liberal protestant, being united with the South (where Unionist traditions, identity and culture were enshrined and safeguarded) would feel more of a home. The South has changed so much, that the same arguments that made sense 100 years ago, Home Rule Means Rome Rule, won’t make sense to quite a few moderate unionists, whether Catholic, Protestant or non aligned.

6) A gradual change in Protestant or Unionist attitudes. The unionists are not a monolith of non compromising fundamental protestants: flat earthers, creationists and climate change deniers more fit for a 17th century world. This is very unfair, and incorrect many younger Unionists are not characterized by the DUP.

 

Of course a Border poll has been vetoed by the DUP in the short term but the situation is very fluid. It is perfectly possible that NI wont even see its 100th birthday in 2022.

Comments

  1. Peter May -

    NI and the UK itself is held hostage by the DUP, who, on Brexit do not accord with the views of their own province. But they seem less ‘neoliberal’ than the Irish government. We said Brexit would be obsessional and all encompassing -and so it is proving to be.

    1. Sean Danaher -

      Yes FG is the closest thing we have to a Tory party in Ireland and are indeed neoliberal. The good thing about the Irish PR system however is that pretty much all governments are coalitions. Some of the best governments have been Labour/FG coalitions. At present we have a minority government and the worst aspects of neoliberalism are kept in check. Certainly there is no austerity agenda, indeed after weathering the 2008 GFC there seems to be much more money available for public spending.

      One thing FG do have is a reputation for honesty and integrity. I would never vote for them but I respect them, unlike the UK Tory party to which the terms “honesty and integrity” do not immediately spring to mind!

      1. Peter May -

        Agreed, the Tories are corrupt simply because they are overwhelmingly funded by plutocrats. And they have the cheek to complain about Momentum!

        The Irish system shows how PR helps to prevent UK government’s ‘absolute control’. Is the Irish system all PR or do they have a constituency system as well?

        Also the Irish are not going to be stuffed (TRUK) unless the Good Friday Agreement falls away as easily as the UK offer/agreement to the EU.

        If that is the case then the UK government is playing fast and loose…

        1. L Haines -

          Totally PR with multi-seat constituencies

          1. Peter May -

            Thanks – so gives the lie to PR preventing a constituency link…

            1. Andrew (Andy) Crow -

              I think most of the stated objections to PR are basically lies or similar forms of un-truth.

              The argument that FPTP yields strong government has frequently been proved wrong and when it produces ‘landslide’ results it leads to a lack of consensus in legislation which is damaging of social cohesion. Plus, the lack of effective scrutiny and opposition produces bad law.

  2. Sean Danaher -

    Peter
    When I lived in Dublin we had a 3 seater constituency with one FF one FG and one Labour TD (MP)
    I would say accessibility was far greater than the in the UK. I had 3 People who would fight my corner
    Our Tory MP ignores my Wife completely I suppose content in the knowledge that with the FOTP system his seat is so secure he can do whatever he likes

  3. Peter May -

    Thanks a lot, so that means the best of both worlds! It’s PR in a large constituency then.
    We definitely need the Irish sytem – about which I, and I’m sure many others, are pretty ignorant! Why not a briefing – because I think that sounds the way we need to go – I never heard about it in our referendum on supposed PR?
    I do think that sounds like a system we should have.
    After all we are very close in most, if not all respects – now that the Catholic church has been kicked into touch! (I would imagine you’d agree it has been)?

  4. Andrew (Andy) Crow -

    “….The constructive ambiguity in the UK/EU agreement ….”

    I love ‘constructive ambiguity’. I wish I’d thought of that. (You will Oscar , you will.)

  5. Sean Danaher -

    Another indication of the disparity between the two economies from
    https://www.businessworld.ie/economy/144-000-net-new-jobs-across-the-island-of-Ireland-projected-by-2020-569945.html

    “Economic Eye projects growth of 144,000 net additional jobs in the period 2017-20 across the island of Ireland. Growth figures are driven largely by the ROI, where 138,500 new jobs are projected, led across a number of sectors, including construction, manufacturing, transport and storage and ICT. However, the report highlights a more challenging outlook for Northern Ireland, with a projected growth of 5,800 jobs by 2020.”

    The Republic has about 2.5 times the population of the North but even so the difference in job creation level is pretty damning of the NI economic model.

Write a reply or comment Comments Policy

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Name *