The consequences of Brexit look at least as disastrous as Project Fear. I suggest that that has indeed actually turned out to be Project Reality.
Not that that makes its imminence any easier to stomach.
Ian Dunt of Politics Home is of a similar opinion- he suggests that,
What was treasonable metropolitan hogwash is now government public relations strategy.
We are being misled with a vengeance – and the strategy is upheld – as so often – not by any reasoning at all – but by advertising.
Meanwhile – a short table from Surrey University:
This chart (double-click to enlarge) gives the basics of our post Brexit problems – and there is more detailed discussion on Yorkshire Bylines.
But there is even more; for when the Freight Transport Association says in evidence to the House of Lords that “European Conference of Ministers of Transport permits would cover 2 per cent to 5 per cent of [our] transport needs”, there has been no reply.
Given that we import – depending on season – roughly 50% of our food then this is decidedly worrying – and indicative of, if not severe potential food shortages, then actually – I don’t joke – starvation rations.
Yes we could move more transport onto rail – but not overnight and the December 31st cliff edge is exactly that – overnight. If we wanted to change our food logistics in any meaningful way we needed to be starting last year to ensure resilience. We have now, whatever happens, time-wasting customs paperwork to complete – overnight. Quite how this additional consequence of Brexit is beneficial, I fail to understand. It is the diametric opposite of that consequence of Brexit we were once told would be ‘frictionless’.
It is true that we are supposed now to be all members of this ‘proud independent nation’ but it is not much use when we produce so little food of our own and when the principal market for much of what we do produce is actually the EU, which will, without a trade agreement, automatically subject UK sheepmeat, for example, to substantial tariffs, which is likely to mean many British sheep farmers loosing livelihoods – overnight.
There has been till now, no actual reason why we should be nationally sufficient – and maybe we should now give it more attention.
But what a no-deal brexit at the end of the year demands, is self sufficiency – again literally, overnight.
We have neither the food nor the legitimate and authorised road freight capacity, yet UK government offers no guidance other than saying 31 December is not negotiable. And we must ‘get going‘ (whatever that means).
People voted for the oven ready deal – not no deal.
My impression is that – depressingly – we have contrived to elect a government – through our faulty and pseudo democratic system – that just doesn’t care about us.