As readers will know the three issues on which sufficient progress needs to be made before moving onto phase II are the “Divorce Bill”, EU citizens in the UK and visa versa and the Irish Border.
Of the three Progressive Pulse’s analysis as discussed in detail six days ago was that the “Divorce Bill” was by far the easiest to settle and not to do so was a smokescreen.
… the EU simply sees the money in terms of a “bar bill” – a matter of settling existing accounts and totally decoupled from any talks on the future relationship.
….It is not looking for an exact figure. What it looks for however is agreement on the methodology for calculating the bill rather than some haggled fixed amount as if bidding over a carpet at a Turkish Bazaar.
….If the UK were simply to walk away, “no deal is better than a bad deal” would it damage the EU very badly? The answer is no. If the gap in the budget were filled simply by requiring contributions from the EU27 states to pay more to fill the hole according to GDP it would amount to less than 0.1% of GDP.
From the news this morning it seems that the UK has seen sense and has agreed to the EU’s approach in that it looks as if the methodology rather than a fixed figure has been approved.
This is very good news as one option discussed in the article of the 23rd was:
4) Is there a deliberate strategy to make the Brexit talks fail destructively to reap the rewards of “chaos capitalism” whilst simultaneously propagandising that it is a sensible way forward? Have the Mail, Sun and Telegraph fallen for this hook, line and sinker or more sinisterly are they part of this strategy?
Possibly The ERG, Atlantic Bridge and Legatum do not have total control of the steering wheel. For once there is good news. Even some of the right wing press are spinning this as a success from the UKs point of view eg. the Telegraph and Mail, but the Express has ‘No divorce bill’ May gets tough on EU and REJECTS €55 billion demand.