Given the industrial scale dishonesty of the Leave campaign and the EU negotiation, which has been sign on the dotted line for slow learners, it’s bewildering that the polls have remained so sticky; about 50% Leave and 50% remain. The recent BMG poll, which was one of the few organisations to to get the Leave majority on the referendum correct, has shown a poll with a decent swing towards remain for the first time with a headline split of 55.5% Remain to 44.5% Leave. This is significant as there seems to be fairly general agreement that if there is a 60% – 40% split towards remain politics might start changing. There is hope that Labour in particular might come out on the side of remain if the polls continue in their present direction.
Drilling down into the data reveals some interesting results, a caveat of course is that as the sample sizes get smaller the accuracy decreases, so the polls need to be taken as indicative rather than definitive. In all the figures presented below the remain figure is first whereas the leave one is second.
Breakdown by Sex
The male split is 57.5% remain to 42.5% leave whereas the female split is 54%-46%, indicating a slightly greater Remain prominence in the male voter. This may be a spurious result but will be worth watching in future polls.
Breakdown by Age
18-24 age group 76% remain to 24% leave
35-54 age group 58% remain to 42% leave
55+ age group 39% remain to 61% leave
This is in line with other polls in that the younger you are the more likely you are to vote remain.
Breakdown by Party
Conservative 31% remain to 69% leave
Labour 72% remain to 28% leave
This is an even stronger trend than most polls. The Labour vote is quite striking but has probably strengthened its remain tendency by attracting younger voters who overwhelmingly lean towards Labour. It also has some older die-hard remain voters.
Breakdown by Qualification
Degree: 69% remain to 31% leave
No quals: 38% remain to 62% leave
This is very much in line with other polls which show a very high correlation between qualifications and tendency to vote remain.
Breakdown by Employment Status
FT/PT Job: 62% remain to 38% leave
Self emp: 55% remain to 45% leave
Student: 87% remain to 13% leave
Out of work – 6m+: 43% remain to 57% leave
Retired: 38% remain to 62% leave
LT sick: 44% remain to 56% leave
This is broadly in line with other polls. More productive people tend to vote remain, less productive people leave. The groups which vote leave comprise significant numbers of retired people which one would expect as there is a high correlation with age: the older you are the more likely you are to vote leave. The long term unemployed and long term sick are possibly a protest vote, who feel they have little to loose. Students vote most strongly to remain which is in line with other polls.